Northern or Northeastern Gulf of Mexico Development This Weekend??: Now that Alex has dissipated over inland Mexico, we need to quickly shift our attention to the northern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico where development is possible this weekend. The reason behind this potential development is a stalled frontal system that is positioned across the northern Gulf of Mexico. Even though low pressure is developing in the extreme northeast Gulf of Mexico just south of the Florida Panhandle, wind shear values of 30+knots will prevent tropical development for the time being.
With that said, pretty much all of the forecast guidance are forecasting some intensification of this low pressure system throughout Saturday and through Sunday. This low pressure system is ultimately forecast to come ashore in southeastern Louisiana during Monday. Looking at the overall forecast environmental conditions this weekend, it looks only marginally favorable, at best, for development, however, with sea surface temperatures being so hot in this area, this system will have to be closely watched for tropical cyclone development as it drifts westward close to the northern Gulf coast this weekend.
So, bottom line is that while I think tropical development is very possible in the northern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, any system should remain fairly weak (Tropical Depreesion or a low end Tropical Storm) due to a combination of it being close to land and only marginally favorable environmental conditions.
Western Caribbean/Southern Gulf of Mexico Development Middle to Later Part Of Next Week??: I will be closely monitoring the western Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical cyclone development next week, especially from Wednesday and beyond. Model guidance like the European and the GFS-Parallel models are forecasting development from a tropical wave now located in the extreme southeastern Caribbean. Environmental conditions are currently forecast to be favorable for development and this will be something to really watch out for. It should be noted that the European model forecasts this potential system to come ashore near or just north of Corpus Christi, TX next Friday and the Parallel GFS model is a bit slower in the development and movement and ultimately forecasts this potential system to come ashore in central and southeastern Louisiana around July 13th.
Obviously, this is something that I will be monitoring very closely over the next several days and I will keep you all updated.
One final tidbit of information, the Madden Julian Oscillation is currently becoming stuck in a favorable phase here in the Atlantic; therefore, pretty much all of the upward motion energy is here in the Atlantic. This type of scenario of the MJO being stuck in a favorable phase may happen quite often this season; in fact, no significant or long lasting downward motion (unfavorable) pulses are expected anytime soon. So, the tropics are likely to remain active.
The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 1 pm EDT/12 pm CDT Saturday.
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